Wars Between Nations Face Persistent Escalation Risk, Decades of Conflict Data Suggest

Study Shows How Escalation Can Send Wars Spiraling Out Of Control

Wars become massive not because they begin at a massive scale, and not because they drag on for years. The post Study Shows How Escalation Can Send Wars Spiraling Out Of Control appeared first on StudyFinds.

Wars between nations face persistent escalation risk, decades of conflict data suggest

Military leaders frequently underestimate how big the wars they engage in will get. Gen. Douglas MacArthur predicted U.S. troops could come home from the Korean War in time for Christmas, just months after the conflict started. But Chinese attacks that winter extended the war for years. And President Donald Trump said in March that the Iran war would be a "short-term excursion," but it has now lasted more than five months, with periods of escalation.

Research finds some wars face a persistent risk of escalation

Military leaders often enter conflicts believing they can control their size, duration and intensity. A new statistical analysis led by researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder suggests that such confidence is frequently misplaced. Wars can expand through a chain of unpredictable decisions, alliances and battlefield reactions, turning limited confrontations into prolonged and far more destructive conflicts. The study finds that escalati…