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Will RBI announce steep rate hikes? Nomura sees up to 50 bps increase by Dec, dismisses 125 bps hike fears

  • Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise its repo rate by 25 basis points in October and December, bringing the terminal rate to 5.75%.
  • Nomura assigns an 80% probability to a 25–50-basis-point recalibration scenario and dismisses expectations of increases exceeding 75 basis points.
  • Nomura forecasts inflation to rise to 6.3% in the fourth quarter before falling below 4% in the second half of 2027.
  • HSBC Global Investment Research also expects two 25-basis-point hikes in FY27, citing strong growth and persistent inflation pressures.
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Moneycontrol broke the news in Mumbai, India on Monday, September 28, 2026.
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