This Year's El Niño Just Broke a Record Months Before It's Expected to Peak
NOAA forecasts the event will keep strengthening, with the latest daily anomaly at 3.08 degrees Celsius, above the previous record of 3.02 degrees Celsius.
- On September 21, the El Niño anomaly reached 3.08 degrees Celsius, exceeding the 1991 to 2020 average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This intensity is the most extreme ever recorded, surpassing the 2015 record.
- The transition to this strong El Niño has been rapid, with surface water temperatures rising in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, says Nathaniel Johnson of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. "It has been a remarkable event," Johnson added.
- Researchers from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago project over 450,000 additional heat-related deaths by February 2027. Deaths will be concentrated "overwhelmingly" in the Global South, including 66,800 across the Sahel in Africa.
- California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Monday to prepare for the El Niño season. The declaration allows authorities to "move faster to protect communities, stage critical resources, and strengthen readiness before severe weather intensifies."
- Seasonal forecasts from NOAA suggest the record will be broken soon, with the event likely peaking by the end of this year. Experts warn the phenomenon will continue driving extreme conditions including droughts and wildfires.
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The equatorial Pacific already has a temperature anomaly of +3 °C and the 22 models consulted project that the phenomenon will continue to be strengthened
The UK Met Office and Climate Impact Lab have announced that El Niño, which began in June 2026 and increased temperatures by 2.6°C in the Eastern Pacific, has reached its strongest level in observation history.
El Niño has already reached record levels in the Pacific. The climate phenomenon could intensify further by the end of the year. The consequences are expected to be felt worldwide in 2027.
‘El Niño’ already at record levels and threatens to claim 450,000 lives due to extreme heat alone
The El Niño phenomenon has not yet reached its peak intensity, which the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects to occur at the end of this year, and seawater temperatures in the tropical Pacific area considered the epicenter of the event are already at record levels. The anomaly in that zone exceeded three degrees Celsius in mid‑September and has risen to a level similar to the peak of the El Niño event 11 years ago, in November 2015.S…
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