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Labour Regains Lead as Farage’s Reform Slips in YouGov Model

The projection shows Labour short of a majority, while Reform’s support has fallen sharply from last year and tactical voting could reshape dozens of seats.

  • A YouGov poll released earlier this week shows Reform UK slipping to third place with 123 seats, trailing Labour's 241 and the Conservative Party's 130 if a general election were held today.
  • The results mark a significant difference from last year's polling, which suggested Reform UK would form the largest party, as the populist outfit battles months of turbulence and scandals.
  • Constituency modelling reveals more than 82 projected Reform wins could be decided by margins under five points, with YouGov warning of "uncertainty" regarding tactical voting vulnerabilities.
  • Former Conservative defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their seats to the Conservative Party, which is rebuilding its relationship with the electorate under Kemi Badenoch.
  • The MRP poll suggests the UK is heading for a hung parliament, meaning Prime Minister Andy Burnham's Labour party may need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party to govern.
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  • 50% of the sources lean Left
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HuffPost UK broke the news in United Kingdom on Thursday, September 24, 2026.
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