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Middle East Crude Oil Exports Exceed Pre-War Levels but Tanker Attacks Increase
Kpler said exports topped 18 million bpd in the final week of September even as Marisks reported at least seven tanker attacks.
Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels in four of the seven days of late September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day despite attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February, establishing the baseline for measuring current performance.
Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents on Saturday, including an October 1 strike on the Kuwaiti Very Large Crude Carrier Kazimah III that caused a fire; all crew members were evacuated safely.
Current intelligence suggests vessels face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" as Iranian forces possibly launch missiles into a predetermined engagement area, or "kill box," rather than targeting individual ships.
Beyond crude, the overall tally for oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day through September 30, while liquefied natural gas cargoes reached their highest monthly level since February.