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Two Weeks From the 1st Round, 54% Believe that Lula Will Win the Election; 36%, that Flavio Will Be President, Says BTG-Nexus Research

Summary by Terra
Research was released on Monday, 21, and heard 2,006 voters between September 18 and 20; margin of error is 2 percentage points
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Among voters who do not receive the benefit, expectation of victory of the petist falls to 51%, while 40% point Flávio Bolsonaro

The national research of the Nexus institute released on Monday (21) exposed a contradiction between the reprobation of President Lula (PT) and the expectation about his chances of re-election in the polarized dispute with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). According to the survey hired by the BTG Pactual Bank, 50% of Brazilians reprobate Lula's work, however,

The BTG/Nexus research released on Monday (21) brought a new indicator in the series: the expectation of the interviewees themselves about who will win the election, regardless of their personal vote. The result shows 54% believing in Lula's victory, against 36% who expect Flávio Bolsonaro's victory. It is a conceptually different metric of voting intent, [...]

Research was released on Monday, 21, and heard 2,006 voters between September 18 and 20; margin of error is 2 percentage points

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Terra broke the news on Monday, September 21, 2026.
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