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Will AI really kill everyone? How, exactly?
Critics say extinction scenarios rely on speculation, while researchers argue nuclear sites, labs and weapons systems pose major technical barriers.
- Last week, Anthropic employee Jacob Coxon quit, citing dangerous work, triggering alarm among politicians and news organizations. Evan Hubinger, another Anthropic worker, estimated the chance of AI-powered human extinction within 10 years at greater than 10%.
- Speculation among doomsayers includes AI-driven bioweapons or robot armies. Researcher Thomas Larsen attempted to detail these doomsday scenarios in reports titled "AI 2027" and "AI 2040," projecting different developmental frameworks.
- Nate Soares, president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, said "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All." Cheng Xing argued appealing to superintelligence is "handwaving" without physical evidence.
- Heidy Khlaaf, chief AI scientist at the AI Now Institute, noted that "Scientific claims require falsifiability precisely to avoid the nature of religious arguments." She pointed out nuclear facilities are air-gapped from the internet.
- Herbert Lin of Stanford University noted that while AI amplifies some risks, the actual material threat remains with nuclear weapons, which have existed for more than 80 years and are generally understood capable of killing all human life.
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