US EditionWhy some economists go against the flow on RBA rate bet
Economists diverge on inflation readings with 70% market odds favoring a rate hike, while others expect inflation to ease, influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first 2026 meeting.
- On Tuesday, Phil O'Donaghoe and a handful of economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold the cash rate at 3.6 per cent at the board's first meeting of 2026.
- Heterodox economists argue many peers focus on a rise in core inflation in the Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly consumer price index, while they highlight the downward trend in the ABS newly-minted monthly inflation series that the RBA treats cautiously.
- Money markets imply about a 70 per cent chance of a 25-basis point increase, while other forecasts split around 49 per cent for a hike versus 51 per cent for a hold.
- Federal politicians will grill RBA officials on Friday when Governor Michele Bullock, deputy Andrew Hauser and three assistant governors front a parliamentary committee hearing in Canberra, amid a potential RBA policy U-turn from cuts to hikes.
- Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, says inflation will slow this year, as housing price increases slowed in December and a stronger dollar lowers imported inflation.
19 Articles
19 Articles
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Bias Distribution
- 73% of the sources lean Left
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