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Canola Climbs After Sharp Drop, Wheat Follows Similar Market Swings
Turkiye’s transit halt and attacks on commercial vessels are tightening global wheat supplies, while Russian exports may fall to a decade low, analysts said.
Chicago wheat futures rose 2.5% to their highest price since July 30, as escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea tightened global grain supplies. The disruptions forced importers to diversify sourcing and kept support under higher-quality wheat values.
Russia and Ukraine have been attacking agricultural export facilities and commercial vessels in the Black Sea in recent weeks, driving wheat prices higher on global markets. Turkiye temporarily halted Black Sea transits for its vessels over the weekend amid heightened security risks.
SovEcon projects Russia will export between 3 million and 3.4 million metric tons of wheat this August, well below the five-year average of 5 million tons. Independent consultancy ProZerno forecasts overall grain exports will fall to nearly 2.5 million metric tons amid severe congestion.
Russia's Agriculture Ministry announced it would raise the wheat export tax for August 12–18, despite foreign buyers backing away due to soaring shipping costs. The export logjam left the domestic market oversupplied, driving local prices down by $5.46 per ton.
Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan called for a "moratorium" on attacks in the region to ease supply pressures. Russia's main grain exporters union warned earlier this month that attacks could shut down exports, potentially causing hunger in Africa and the Middle East.