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Starmer Rival Andy Burnham Seeks Win in Local UK Poll Pivotal to PM's Fate

Burnham leads polling, but a win could force him to quit as mayor and trigger a Labour leadership challenge.

  • On Thursday, June 18, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham stands in the Makerfield by-election, where 76,641 voters will decide a race viewed as a potential turning point for Labour's leadership.
  • Labour MP Josh Simons vacated his seat in May to allow Burnham to run for Parliament, amid internal dissatisfaction where 100 Labour MPs reportedly stated Sir Keir Starmer is "not up to the job."
  • Recent polling from Opinium shows Burnham leading with 46%, ahead of Reform at 41%, though 48% of Labour voters view him favorably while many remain undecided on whether he would make a better leader.
  • If elected, Burnham must resign as Greater Manchester Mayor, triggering a regional by-election, and he would need support from 20 per cent of members—over 80 MPs—to officially challenge for national leadership.
  • Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has refused to set a timetable for his exit, and as the incumbent, Starmer would remain on the ballot by default in any leadership contest regardless of the Makerfield outcome.
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Polls close in Makerfield by-election that could decide Starmer’s future

Labour candidate Andy Burnham hopes to return to Westminster to replace Sir Keir Starmer by winning the parliamentary race.

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The National broke the news in Glasgow, United Kingdom on Tuesday, June 16, 2026.
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