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US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade: Reuters
Negotiators are weighing a phased swap that could reopen the waterway and ease pressure on Iran, with Dennis Ross putting the odds at 30% before the vote.
US and Iranian negotiators in New York explored a phased agreement to end the nearly seven-month conflict, involving Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade.
Washington's blockade has choked off Iran's oil exports, and this month the US targeted Iran's remaining commercial airlines and the Revolutionary Guards as part of a broader economic campaign.
Former US negotiator Dennis Ross estimated a 30% chance for a deal before the midterms, noting that "The blockade is what's really squeezing the Iranians. It's strangling them," yet neither side wants to surrender leverage first.
President Donald Trump warned that Iran's economy could "rot" unless it reached a deal, facing political pressure to stabilize Gulf oil supplies and lower domestic gasoline prices before November 3 midterm elections.
Even as diplomatic discussions continue, Iranian officials warn "Our fingers are on the trigger," while Ebtessam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, questioned whether "It's still not clear what Trump's endgame is, or what the alternative to the pressure campaign would be.