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UAE’s Shock Exit Leaves OPEC Weakened and the Global Oil Order Rewritten

Abu Dhabi said the move will let it pursue higher output targets and avoid Saudi-imposed quotas, as OPEC’s share of global production fell below 30%.

  • On May 1, the United Arab Emirates officially exited OPEC and OPEC+, marking a significant shake-up for the organization that coordinates oil production among the world's largest producers.
  • Abu Dhabi seeks greater independence from so-called 'Saudi-imposed' quotas to pursue ambitious output goals, including achieving five million barrels per day by 2027.
  • OPEC's global energy production share fell below 30 percent following the exit. In 2025, the UAE accounted for three percent of global oil exports and about 12 percent of total OPEC exports.
  • Just two days later, the UAE exited the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, reflecting a geopolitical shift as the nation strengthens ties with the United States and Israel.
  • Analyst Theros added, "Exiting OPEC was a clear signal from the UAE that it will no longer remain in Saudi Arabia's shadow." The nation expects to increase production independently once Strait of Hormuz exports resume.
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By losing one of its largest members, the cartel will see its ability to influence the oil market reduced, which could affect futures prices as well as increase their volatility.

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Eurasia broke the news on Monday, May 4, 2026.
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