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Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son
Prediction markets logged 413 million Iran-war bets worth more than $100 million as Trump’s posts lifted trading and Polymarket’s value, Dune said.
- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social demanding Iran "Open the F- Strait" on April 5, sparking a surge in prediction-market betting on potential military involvement.
- Polymarket has seen its value soar to $9.6 billion, a nearly tenfold increase in eight months since a venture capital fund in which Trump Jr. is a partner last invested.
- Traders placed 413 million bets risking more than $100 million on Iran-related outcomes from April 5 through April 8, with nearly 100,000 bets placed on the biggest trading day.
- Critics in Congress, including Democrats, have decried profiting off the presidency, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission head publicly promoted these betting venues as "exciting products."
- The Trump Organization is working on opening its own prediction market, Truth Predict, while holding stakes in aerospace and defense companies seeking Pentagon contracts and federal dollars.
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Associated Press News+26 Reposted by 26 other sources
Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son
President Donald Trump loves to keep people guessing about his next policy moves, a reality TV, cliffhanger governing style that is helping “events” wagering companies, including some backed by one of his sons.
·United States
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Total News Sources29
Leaning Left14Leaning Right0Center11Last UpdatedBias Distribution56% Left
Bias Distribution
- 56% of the sources lean Left
56% Left
L 56%
C 44%
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