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Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say

Polls show the Parti Québécois ahead as five parties compete for seats and analysts warn vote-splitting could produce a minority government.

  • Quebec Premier Christine Frechette is expected to trigger the official election campaign this week, sending voters to the polls on Oct. 5 in a race where five parties are competing for seats.
  • Four years ago, Coalition Avenir held a commanding lead, but political scientist Philippe Fournier compares the current race to a hockey team clinging to a single-goal lead after starting with a 4-0 advantage.
  • A Journal poll found 49 per cent of respondents could change their minds by election day, reflecting what Université du Québec à Montréal professor Danielle Pilette describes as voter disappointment in party leaders.
  • McGill University political science professor Éric Belanger noted parties face pressure to present clear visions for restructuring and budget cuts, as the Balanced Budget Act requires the province to eliminate its deficit.
  • According to QC125, the Parti Québécois remains the favorite to form government, though Philippe Fournier warns a potential vote split among the five parties could increase the likelihood of a minority result.
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The Toronto StarThe Toronto Star
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Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say

MONTRÉAL - Four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party was so far in the lead at the start of the provincial election campaign that the only debate was

·Toronto, Canada
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Winnipeg Free Press broke the news in Winnipeg, Canada on Monday, August 24, 2026.
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