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Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say

Five parties could win seats, and analysts say vote splitting may make a minority result more likely.

  • Quebec Premier Christine Frechette is expected to trigger the official election campaign this week, sending voters to the polls on Oct. 5 in a race where five parties are competing for seats.
  • Four years ago, the Coalition Avenir party held a massive lead, but political scientist Philippe Fournier compares the current race to a hockey team clinging to a single-goal lead after starting with a 4-0 advantage.
  • A Léger/Le Journal poll found 49 per cent of respondents could change their minds by election day, while McGill University professor Danielle Pilette describes the population as unimpressed by current party leaders and their positions.
  • Under the Balanced Budget Act, Quebec must eliminate its deficit by 2029–30; McGill professor Éric Belanger noted that parties face pressure to present clear visions for restructuring and budget cuts without financial leeway for major promises.
  • The Parti Québécois remains the favorite to form government according to QC125, though Philippe Fournier warns that a vote split could increase the likelihood of a minority result in Oct.
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16 Articles

The Toronto StarThe Toronto Star
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Lean Left

Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say

MONTRÉAL - Four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party was so far in the lead at the start of the provincial election campaign that the only debate was

·Toronto, Canada
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Winnipeg Free Press broke the news in Winnipeg, Canada on Monday, August 24, 2026.
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