Top Kremlin State Bank Economist Says Russia Cannot Outlast Ukraine
Analysts said 1.3% second-quarter GDP growth masks weaker energy revenue, higher taxes and subsidized lending that could widen Russia’s deficit.
- Official data published this week shows Russia's economy grew 1.3% in the second quarter, yet analysts warn this growth masks deep fiscal strain tied to military spending and surging deficits.
- Depressed energy revenues, standing at just 64% of levels two years ago, are straining the budget as sustained Ukrainian drone strikes target key refineries, according to analyst Lichfield.
- Eurasia Group director Alex Kolyandr describes a 'two-tier economy' where military production jobs thrive while households face rising costs; X5 Group President Yekaterina Lobacheva reported cookie consumption rose almost two-and-a-half times.
- Worsening economic conditions may incentivize President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict to "finish the war on my terms," Kolyandr warned, rather than waiting for reserves to deplete.
- While Russia holds roughly $300 billion in central bank reserves outside Western sanctions, Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that only a much deeper shock might force policy shifts.
34 Articles
34 Articles
Andrei Klepach, long-time chief economist of one of the largest Russian banks, was dismissed after a speech on the Ukrainian conflict.
Andrei Klepach until today was the most important economist of the state development bank VEB and had been playing the role since 2014. But his statements in May did not please the Kremlin
Andrei Klepac lost his position at Russia's second-largest bank for criticizing the economy's performance due to the long-running war - He called Putin's government's belief that Ukraine would collapse an "illusion"
Russia's Economy Is Facing Increasing Pressure. Analysts Worry Putin Might Escalate Before The Money Runs Out.
Analysts worry that the Russian economy's overall shakiness might lead Russia to take aggressive action in a desperate attempt to end the war as soon as possible.
Russia’s key bank dismissed its chief economist, who predicted Russia’s defeat "in a war of attrition"
УНН News of the World ✎ Russian state-owned bank VEB dismissed Andrei Klepach after his remarks about losing the war of attrition and a possible social crisis. He had held th…
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