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As the Trade Deadline Nears, a History-Based Look at How This NBA Season May End

Historical 50-game stats show 70% of NBA champions outscore opponents by 5+ points per game, helping identify four frontrunners as the trade deadline nears.

  • As the league reaches the 50-game mark this week, the NBA trade deadline arrives this Thursday, marking a key roster-move pivot point.
  • Historical trends show about 70% of champions had a point-differential of at least 5.0 points per game through 50 games, and about 65% had a rebound-differential of 100, with only five champions having fewer than 30 wins.
  • Some clubs — including Oklahoma City, Detroit, San Antonio, Denver, New York and Boston — are identified as likely contenders in current assessments, with the race narrowing to about 10 teams.
  • Some teams will tank down the stretch, analysts say, as buyout moves and trade chatter around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant are expected to shape the season.
  • The parity factor shows seven different champions in seven years, keeping predictions uncertain as no playoff spot is locked and some teams are already ruled out.
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As the trade deadline nears, a history-based look at how this NBA season may end

The NBA season is heating up with the trade deadline on Thursday and the All-Star Game on February 15.

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KTVB broke the news in Boise, United States on Monday, February 2, 2026.
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