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Talarico holds slight lead in Texas Senate race poll

  • A new NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group Texas Voter Poll shows likely voters prefer Democrat State Rep. James Talarico over Republican State Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat State Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
  • The Cook Political Report moved the race from 'Lean' Republican to toss-up in late August, as Paxton faced a 2023 Texas House impeachment and 2015 securities fraud indictment, later agreeing to pay about $300,000 in restitution.
  • Among surveyed independent voters, 51% favor Talarico compared to 30% for Paxton, while 52% of women support Talarico and Abbott leads among men with 54%.
  • Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat in 38 years, making this race a critical target for the party's attempt to secure a Senate majority.
  • Regarding voter priorities, 24% of respondents cite the economy and jobs as the primary influence on their vote, while 23% point to inflation and the cost of living.
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  • 56% of the sources are Center
56% Center

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NBC Dallas-Fort Worth broke the news in Fort Worth, United States on Monday, September 21, 2026.
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