Lord Ashcroft: Why You Should Take "Voting Intention Polls" with a Pinch of Salt

Lord Ashcroft: Why you should take "voting intention polls" with a pinch of salt

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com How do you measure the accuracy of an opinion poll? Obviously, you compare its findings to the result of the election it was asking about. The closer the numbers to each party’s actual vote share, the more accurate the poll. This is all very well for surveys carried out a few days before an election…

Lord Ashcroft: Why you should take “voting intention polls” with a pinch of salt

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com How do you measure the accuracy of an opinion poll? Obviously, you compare its findings to the result of the election it was asking about. The closer the numbers to each party’s actual vote share, the more accurate the poll. This is all very well for surveys carried out a few days before an election…

Take "voting intention" polls with a pinch of salt - Lord Ashcroft Polls

HOW DO YOU MEASURE the accuracy of an opinion poll? Obviously, you compare its findings to the result of the election it was asking about. The closer the numbers to each party’s actual vote share, the more accurate the poll. This is all very well for surveys carried out a few days before an election, when voters’ minds are made up and there is little time for events to intervene. But what about a poll conducted months or even years before anyone…