Study: Global Fertility Falls Below Replacement for First Time
The model covers 236 countries and territories and finds fertility declines in 219, with a global replacement rate near 2.20, researchers said.
- Researchers argue humanity may have already dropped below replacement fertility, with global population potentially peaking around 2056 at nine billion, nearly three decades earlier than the United Nations' central forecast.
- Sixty-Four countries and territories had already passed peak population by 2026 according to United Nations estimates, with many high-income nations maintaining growth only through immigration.
- A study of 37 countries found a 9.3 percent shortfall compared with United Nations projections, with Colombia, South Africa, and Thailand recording births significantly below expectations.
- Economists debate whether record-low fertility rates represent a temporary dip or a permanent new normal, with some pointing to smartphones as a contributing factor.
- Societies approaching one retiree for every worker face significant distributional challenges as populations decline, with experts warning that low fertility will reshape global demographics through the century's end.
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The Demographic Dead End: 2026 State of Fertility Report | Institute for Family Studies
In this report, we present fresh estimates of fertility for every state with available vital statistics back to 1917, and we also use results from a new survey of over 4,700 Americans to explore how American cultural norms around friendship and celebrity families may shape fertility.
World faces historic population decline – study
-> Reported by: RT Global fertility may have fallen below replacement level for the first time in human history, putting the world population on course for decline within roughly one generation, a new study has warned. The paper, Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World, published earlier this month by economics professor Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde of the University of Pennsylvania and Northwestern University researcher Patrick Norr…
Noahpinion
ussanews.comEconomists should be worried about birth rates
Don’t be so quick to dismiss the threat of an aging, declining population.
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