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Stanley Druckenmiller's Brazil Bet Appears To Pay Off After Election Shock. Brazil's Biggest ETF Soars 13% On The News

The ETF’s rise reflected a market-friendly election surprise, while Stanley Druckenmiller’s June Brazil position included $118.5 million in shares and $145.9 million in call options.

  • On Monday, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF surged 13% after first-round election results showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading with about 47% of votes, setting up a 25 October runoff against Lula, who held about 45%.
  • Foreign investors interpreted the surprise election outcome as market-friendly, causing the US-listed Brazil ETF to jump about 10% in overnight trading, while Brazil's benchmark Selic rate remains fixed at 13.75%.
  • Market attention shifts to today's 8:30 BRT BCB Focus report and 10:00 BRT S&P Global PMIs, as analysts weigh whether September's composite estimate of 48.5 indicates contraction in the dominant services sector.
  • Friday's 2.63% gain has the Ibovespa index near 192,115 points, about 3.3% below the 52-week closing high of 198,657, leaving traders exposed to potential profit-taking today.
  • Maintaining a 13.75% Selic rate preserves a ten percentage point carry over US yields; the central bank faces macro headwinds including a 1.2% decline in August industrial production.
Insights by Ground AI

38 Articles

Lean Left

The S&P Merval rises more than 3% and the bonds in dollars recover 1.3% on average. The indicator of JP Morgan yields to 614 basis points

·Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Lean Right

The result of the first round surprised against what the polls anticipated and led to a rapid revaluation of Brazilian assets; the real against the dollar is also strengthened

·Vicente López, Argentina
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Lean Right

Petrobras shares jump 9.3% in the pre-opening of Wall Street, while large banks' securities jump more than 10%.

·Las Condes, Chile
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UOL broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Sunday, October 4, 2026.
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