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The Shutdown Shakes up Politics in Virginia, Home to More than 300,000 Federal Workers

Democrats focus on economic development and affordability while Republicans emphasize culture war issues to mobilize voters in Virginia's key off-year election, polls show Spanberger leading.

  • Representative Abigail Spanberger is framing the campaign around affordability and rising prices, while Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears emphasizes culture war issues and Spanberger aims to make the race about Donald Trump.
  • A looming federal shutdown has heightened anxiety in Virginia's federal-heavy regions, where more than 300,000 federal workers live and the White House's budget office warned last week of possible layoffs.
  • Polls and early-vote figures indicate tightening margins and energized GOP turnout, with the A2 Insights survey showing Ms. Spanberger ahead 47.7% to 44.6% and 6.4% undecided.
  • As one of just two statewide contests, Virginia will be an early test of messages voters will hear in next year’s midterm elections, and Representative Abigail Spanberger is trying to make the contest a referendum on Trump.
  • The race's dynamics are unusual because the GOP nominee is Black and both sides must court that roughly 16 percent bloc, while Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 win at 50.58% to 48.64% highlights Virginia’s off-year election history.
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The Hill broke the news in Washington, United States on Tuesday, September 30, 2025.
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