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Holyrood Election 2026: Election Eve Poll Projects SNP to Fall Short on a Majority

YouGov’s latest projection puts the SNP on 62 seats and says an outright majority now has only an 11% chance.

Summary by The Scotsman
The poll predicts Reform UK will come second, a senior SNP government minister in peril, and the Scottish Conservative leader failing to win a seat.

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Bias Distribution

  • 71% of the sources lean Left
71% Left

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The Scotsman broke the news in Scotland, United Kingdom on Wednesday, May 6, 2026.
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