Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones
Reuters calculations show conflict-hit countries produced about 45 million barrels per day in 2025, while global refining capacity has fallen by about a tenth.
- On Tuesday, Reuters reported that countries affected by conflict account for more than 43% of global oil supply, with output from these regions reaching about 45 million barrels per day based on 2025 data.
- Six months ago, Israeli attacks on Iran triggered the largest oil supply crisis on record, while ongoing conflict in Libya and restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports compounded strains at the start of the year.
- With Saudi Arabia re-routing oil, Gulf exporters operating secretly near the Strait of Hormuz face disruptions totaling around 5 million to 7 million barrels per day. The Russia-Ukraine war forced production cuts, including strikes on refining networks as far as Omsk.
- Russia is grappling with fuel shortages, leading to export bans that have tightened global markets. Higher fuel prices are driving inflation and increasing borrowing costs, contributing to record U.S. debt levels.
- The IEA has released record volumes from emergency stockpiles, yet risks to total flows remain high. Recent attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt's Suez Canal demonstrate that instability continues threatening global energy security.
12 Articles
12 Articles
Conflict-hit oil supply crisis deepens as nearly half of global output comes from affected countries
Nearly half of the world’s oil supply now comes from countries affected by conflict, highlighting the growing vulnerability of global energy markets. Reuters calculations based on IEA data show that Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Libya and Venezuela produced around 45 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for more than 43% of global oil supply.
Al-Monitor
Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones
By Seher Dareen, Anushree Mukherjee and Robert HarveyLONDON Aug 25 (Reuters) - Almost half the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises.Six months ago, U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, with no clear end in sight. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war has …
Oil supplies are more threatened than ever by wars and armed conflicts. According to Reuters calculations, almost half of the world's oil now comes from countries affected by conflict. The current supply shortages this year are bigger than in previous energy crises.
Six months into Iran war: Nearly half of world oil from conflict zones
Reuters calculations indicate about 45 million barrels per day — over 43% of 2025 global oil output — came from countries affected by conflict, amplifying supply risks for the Middle East and Gulf exporters including routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.
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