Reserve Bank stalls on interest rate — but two cuts still expected in 2026
The South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate at 6.75% amid moderate inflation, with a 4-2 vote and lowered inflation forecasts for 2026 to 3.3%, signaling possible cuts later.
- On Thursday, 29 January, the South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate at 6.75%, with the six-person Monetary Policy Committee voting 4-2 against a 25 basis point cut, maintaining the prime lending rate at 10.5%.
- Amid rand strength and moderating price pressures, the committee held rates as inflation likely peaked at 3.6% in December, with inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 lowered to 3.3% and 3.2%.
- The six-person Monetary Policy Committee met as scheduled on a Thursday, with Governor Lesetja Kganyago leading; the MPC last cut the repo by 25 basis points at its November 2025 meeting.
- The split vote raised near-term odds of easing, with the Quarterly Projection Model still pencilling in two 2026 cuts, while commercial banks keep the prime lending rate at 10.5%, leaving borrowers and savers unchanged.
- Food and electricity price risks could complicate the path to lower rates as the National Energy Regulator of South Africa's price correction may rise from R54 billion to R76 billion, while Lesetja Kganyago called the past year a `watershed year for the South African economy`.
13 Articles
13 Articles
Monetary authority said that inflation last year was 3.2%, near the 3% target, with progress towards the end of 2025 allocated to temporary factors
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