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EU Sees Iceland Vote as Potential Boost for Enlargement Optics
EU diplomats say a yes vote could improve enlargement optics and help newer bids, as Icelanders are split 46% to 46% on restarting talks.
On August 29, Icelanders will vote on whether to reopen EU membership negotiations, a significant step for the NATO member currently accessing the EU single market through the European Economic Area.
EU diplomats hope restarting talks with the wealthy nation of 400,000 people will boost the optics of enlargement among citizens wary of welcoming new members, demonstrating the 'attractiveness of the EU'.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos expects negotiations to take one to two years, with officials identifying fisheries as the 'toughest point of negotiation' due to its role in Iceland's economy and identity.
Pairing Iceland with Montenegro could help sceptical EU members 'swallow the accession of Montenegro,' according to diplomats; Steven Blockmans of the Tallinn-based International Centre for Defence and Security calls this tandem approach more successful.
Russia's war in Ukraine and President Donald Trump's interest in Greenland have spotlighted Iceland's strategic position, which supporters argue could help the island address high living costs and withstand shifting Arctic geopolitics.
European Union officials hope that Iceland's referendum on resuming accession talks will help strengthen support in Europe for joining the bloc of other, less wealthy nations.
Diljá Mist Einarsdóttir, a member of parliament for the Independence Party, says that Iceland would be the first country in decades to pay its way into the European Union if membership were approved. She discussed the costs of EU membership when she participated in a debate on the pros and cons of membership at a meeting in Harpa yesterday evening.