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How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day Predictions? Here's How He Ranks in 2026
- On Monday, Punxsutawney Phil will issue his annual long-term forecast at a sunrise ceremony at Gobbler's Knob, where tens of thousands will watch him emerge from his tree-stump hatch.
- Rooted in older seasonal observances, the tradition traces to Pennsylvanians of German descent and ties into the Celtic calendar and Candlemas, with its national profile boosted by the 1993 Bill Murray film and becoming a marketing juggernaut.
- Rules of the ritual hold that when Phil sees his shadow, it signals six more weeks of winter, while not seeing it means an early spring; his top-hatted handlers in the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club interpret his winks, purrs, chatters and nods.
- Michael Venos, 46-year-old database administrator from Roxbury, New Jersey, has cataloged more than 300 prognosticators since the 1880s; last year alone there were more than 100 predictions including from armadillo, ostriches, and Nigerian dwarf goats.
- Observers travel about 80 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, split between believers and doubters, while organizers emphasize the event is mostly harmless early-morning fun with an alcohol ban at the site.
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Groundhog Day vs Science: How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources67
Leaning Left10Leaning Right4Center46Last UpdatedBias Distribution77% Center
Bias Distribution
- 77% of the sources are Center
77% Center
L 16%
C 77%
Factuality
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