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Prediction Markets See Government Shutdown Lasting Into Mid-October
Prediction markets show a 35% chance the shutdown will last 15 days or more amid a deadlock over Affordable Care Act tax breaks and federal spending, impacting hundreds of thousands of workers.
- Polymarket bettors began wagering on the shutdown's duration, with 47 percent expecting it to last until October 15, 2025, or later.
- The standoff centers on whether to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits, with Democrats pressing to extend them and oppose Medicaid cuts while Republicans demand a clean funding bill, and neither backed the other's measure on Tuesday.
- Market-Level probabilities indicate multi-day closures as Polymarket shows an 89% chance of lasting more than 4 days and Kalshi action implies stoppage beyond a weekend.
- Federal agencies have begun implementing contingency plans, furloughing thousands and delaying pay for many federal workers; Social Security continues but staffing shortages could slow service and halt jobs and CPI data.
- Bank of America data shows shutdowns average about 14 days, and the last long closure in 2018-19 was during President Donald Trump's term, but markets still expect a bill before October 31, 2025.
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17 Articles
17 Articles
Prediction Markets Suggest Shutdown Could Last Two Weeks
The government shutdown is unlikely to come to an end over the next few days, according to online prediction markets, which point to the impasse dragging into next week or beyond. There's a 35% chance that the shutdown ends on Oct. 15 or later, according to Polymarket, which gives a 34% probability
·New York, United States
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources17
Leaning Left3Leaning Right2Center6Last UpdatedBias Distribution55% Center
Bias Distribution
- 55% of the sources are Center
55% Center
L 27%
C 55%
R 18%
Factuality
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