Pollsters Off in Hot Primary
The Emerson College survey found Abdul El-Sayed ahead by 15 points, underscoring how volatile the Democratic Senate race remained.
- Emerson College released a poll one week before Michigan's Senate primary showing Abdul El-Sayed leading U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens by 15 points, but El-Sayed won by only a percentage point with 99 percent of the vote counted.
- Polling has become increasingly complex as fewer voters answer unknown numbers, forcing reliance on online surveys that risk capturing enthusiasm rather than broad opinion about candidates.
- Emerson College typically maintains a strong reputation; the firm accurately forecast the 2020 presidential contest, predicting Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 4.2 points on election eve before Biden won by 4.4 points.
- This polling error likely dampened turnout in the marquee race within the Democratic Party's intraparty battle over the party's future direction, with results undetermined until the morning after election night.
- American voters should treat polls as fallible and capable of being dramatically wrong, particularly when results-oriented messaging fails to trigger the emotional online displays that typically drive political engagement.
26 Articles
26 Articles
Are pollsters compromised by socialists or just incompetent?
The polling miss in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor follows the polling miss in the Michigan Democratic Senate race. This raises a question: Are polling outlets trying to put a thumb on the scale for socialist Democrats, or are they wildly incompetent? Socialist Francesca Hong lost the Wisconsin Democratic primary to the more establishment candidate, David Crowley, by less than 1 percentage point. The result is particularly shockin…
Frank Luntz: Pollsters need to stop talking | Ed Henry The Big Take
Pollster Frank Luntz attempted to explain what is going on with inaccurate polling information in midwestern states on Wednesday’s "Ed Henry The Big Take." Watch NEWSMAX, an independent news network with a conservative perspective, available in 100M+ U.S. homes. Watch NEWSMAX anytime at http://NewsmaxTV.com. Don’t have cable/satellite that carries NEWSMAX? Watch NEWSMAX online, on-demand by...
CNN Chief Data Analyst Warns Pre-Election Polling Missed The Mark Again - Tampa Free Press
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Wednesday that pre-election polling has repeatedly overstated support for progressive candidates in recent Democratic primaries. The analysis followed the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, where Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated state Rep. Francesca Hong. Heading into the vote, public polling had consistently shown Hong holding a wide […] CNN Chief Data Analyst Warns Pre-Elec…
Pollsters off in hot primary
Emerson College released a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan about a week before the vote. It had progressive firebrand Abdul El-Sayed leading U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens by 15 percentage points in the race for U.S. Senate.
Editorial: Pollsters blew it in the lead-up to Michigan, the hottest primary in 2026
A week ago, Emerson College released a poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan that had progressive firebrand Abdul El-Sayed leading U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens by 15 percentage points in the race for U.S. Senate. Emerson was just one…
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 69% of the sources are Center
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
