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Polls: Lula, Bolsonaro Deadlocked in Potential Brazil Runoff

  • An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie for next month's runoff, with Lula holding 47.7% to Bolsonaro's 47.4% within the survey's 1 percentage point margin of error.
  • In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 45.8% of support while Bolsonaro follows with 43.4%, an improvement over previous findings of 44.1% and 41.7%, respectively.
  • The latest findings from 5,015 people surveyed between Sept 17 and 22 reflect a shift, as a Sept 17 poll had Flavio Bolsonaro leading Lula 47.2% to 46.8%.
  • If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 election, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff scheduled for October 25.
  • Other candidates trail significantly in the first-round scenario, with Renan Santos receiving 4.5%, Augusto Cury 2.1%, and Ronaldo Caiado 1.3% of voter support.
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Lean Left

The presidential race in Brazil is heating up with less than two weeks to go before the October 4 election. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round, but recent polls show a close tie in a runoff. According to a Quaest poll published on September 21, Lula would receive 37% support in the first round, compared to 33% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jai…

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Metrópoles broke the news on Monday, September 21, 2026.
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