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Poll Shows Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro in Dead Heat in Brazilian Election Matchup

  • A Datafolha poll released Saturday shows Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 46% and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 43% in a technical tie for a second-round runoff.
  • Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters from Tuesday to Thursday in 137 municipalities, with a margin of error of two percentage points before Brazil's October 4 vote and possible October 25 runoff.
  • The poll shows Lula and Flavio also top rejection charts, with 46% refusing Lula and 45% refusing Flavio, making the race highly polarized.
  • Alternate second-round matchups produce similarly tight margins, per the survey: Lula leads Tarcisio de Freitas, governor of the state of Sao Paulo, 45% to 42%.
  • If no candidate wins a majority, the top two face a runoff on October 25, and Datafolha’s margin of error of two percentage points tempers interpretation of close second-round numbers.
Insights by Ground AI

14 Articles

Lean Right

The Presidential Board dropped from 51% to 46% of the vote, while Bolsonaro's son rose from 38% to 43%

·Brazil
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Left

The Institute interviewed 2,004 voters between the last Tuesday 3 and Friday 5

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Realtime Big Data published on this Tuesday, 9, indicates that Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) is in front of President Lula (PT) in the state of São Paulo. Jair Bolsonaro's son appears with 38% of the vote, before 34% of the petitioner. Ratinho Jr. (PSD) comes in third, with 9%, followed by Romeu Zema... The post Flavio in front of Lula in SP, says Reatime Big Data appeared first on The Antagonist.

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Bias Distribution

  • 50% of the sources lean Right
50% Right

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UOL broke the news in Brazil on Saturday, March 7, 2026.
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