PM Carney prepared for ‘risk’ that Trump might order U.S.-led military invasion of Canada: report
Carney said Canada’s military modeled a U.S. attack and prepared for a rare but high-impact risk as trade tensions with Washington escalated.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed Wednesday he prepared for the "extreme tail risk" of United States military action against Canada, stressing it would be "irresponsible not to prepare."
- President Donald Trump's 2025 rhetoric, including musings about turning Canada into the "51st state" and using "economic force," catalyzed the government's contingency planning.
- The Canadian Armed Forces modeled a hypothetical U.S. invasion, anticipating American forces could overcome key positions within two days to a week; planners prioritized unconventional tactics like sabotage and drone warfare.
- Tactics from the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War and Taliban operations informed the response, as Canada lacks the conventional personnel and heavy equipment to repel a direct assault.
- Unprecedented in one century, this modeling marks the first time the Forces prepared for an American assault, underscoring the gravity of current United States-Canada tensions.
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It's just risk management, Canadian PM clarifies
Carney Says He Has Examined Risk of US Military Action in Canada as ‘Extreme Tail Risk’
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks during a media availability on the sidelines of the the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at the UN headquarters on Sept. 22, 2026. (The Canadian Press/Justin Tang)
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney considered "the extreme risk of a U.S. military action under Donald Trump, who repeatedly expressed his desire to make Canada the 51st U.S. state, according to an interview published Wednesday evening by the New York Times, quoted by AFP.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has discussed the possibility that US President Donald Trump could use the military to achieve his goal of annexing Canada to the United States, The New York Times (NYT) reported.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has discussed the possibility that US President Donald Trump could use the military to achieve his goal of annexing Canada to the United States, The New York Times (NYT) reported.
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