US EditionPolymarket Accused of Double-Counting Its Trading Volume
Paradigm found Polymarket’s smart contracts emit duplicate events causing about 100% volume inflation, leading major data platforms to correct reported trading figures.
- On December 9, 2025, Paradigm researchers disclosed that Polymarket emits separate OrderFilled events for maker and taker, creating redundant trade records, a claim Matt Huang amplified on X.
- Public datasets and analytics dashboards have likely overstated Polymarket activity by approximately 100%, with October 2024 and November 2024 monthly volumes at $1.25 billion each versus $2.5 billion displayed before corrections.
- Slivkoff's audit involved building a transaction simulator and showing a $4.13 trade can generate two OrderFilled events, causing dashboards to report $8.26 instead of the actual $4.13.
- After validation, Paradigm says dashboards are updating, while Polymarket's Primo Data disputed, 'Our site does not double count volume.'
- Critics and defenders clashed over measurement issues as Polymarket prepares a US relaunch amid scrutiny over inflated volume metrics, with some noting low-priced contracts can overstate activity.
12 Articles
12 Articles
Are Polymarket’s Trading Figures Being Fabricated? Paradigm Weighs In
TLDR: Paradigm shows Polymarket’s OrderFilled events record both maker and taker sides, inflating reported trading activity. Volume dashboards misread redundant event logs, causing routine trades to appear far larger than the actual economic flows. Split and merge mechanics generate asymmetric USD movements, yet contract volume remains equal across makers and takers. Paradigm recommends using one-sided metrics, which align with prediction-marke…
Polymarket volume misreported as data providers double-count trades, report
According to a report from Paradigm, an investor in Polymarket competitor Kalshi, several important data providers were miscounting Polymarket volume, leading to volume values double what the volume actually was. The report, which came from Paradigm’s research partner, Storm Slivkoff, detailed how many data providers were relying on counting the number of “OrderFilled” events that were emitted from the Polymarket contract. However, when a trade …
Polymarket Faces Double-Counting Allegations Over Trading Volumes
Polymarket's trading volumes may be inflated by 100% due to double-counting on third-party analytics platforms. The issue stems from separate "OrderFilled" events for maker and taker sides of trades, leading to redundant volume reporting. Major data providers, including DefiLlama and Blockworks, are correcting their dashboards to reflect accurate trading volumes. Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is under scrutiny following alleg…
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