US EditionOil Spikes Above $110 on Iran War Escalation and UAE OPEC Shock Exit
Brent futures climbed above $110 as traders priced in a longer U.S.-Iran war and the UAE’s exit from OPEC raised supply concerns.
- On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates announced it will exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries effective May 1, 2026, following a comprehensive review of production capacity and national interest.
- Planning to increase production to 5 million b/d by 2027, the UAE found it difficult to expand within OPEC's restrictive limitations, a move Sergey Vakulenko, former Gazprom Neft executive, called a 'drift in the historically strong alliance' with Saudi Arabia.
- Crude oil prices surged above $111 per barrel Tuesday, though markets remain primarily driven by supply disruptions caused by the largely closed Strait of Hormuz.
- Rystad analyst Jorge Leon stated the withdrawal creates a 'structurally weaker OPEC,' as Iran and Iraq lack the meaningful spare capacity needed to smooth supply imbalances.
- Monica Malik, chief economist at ADCB, suggested the exit allows the UAE to gain global market share when geopolitical tensions normalize, while Nordea analyst Jan von Gerich warned OPEC's price-control ability will erode when the conflict ends.
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20 Articles
The Wall Street Journal writes that the Iran war and geopolitical tensions are changing the oil market. The OPEC oil cartel is collapsing, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the market is becoming increasingly unstable.
OPEC oil production shifts as UAE quits amid Iran war; here's why oil prices and supply are in focus
The UAE's exit from OPEC may weaken the cartel's influence over oil prices, with analysts noting potential volatility in the market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is exacerbating supply constraints, driving oil prices higher amid the ongoing conflict in the region.
Oil prices again exceeded the $100 per barrel mark, while market participants were waiting for a response from the United States regarding an interim agreement that Iran would be willing to accept to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.This occurred in the midst of a re-accommodation of the oil market, as the United Arab Emirates announced that it will cease to be part of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) as of next month, which …
Oil pares gains but stays firm
Oil prices pared earlier gains after the United Arab Emirates said it would leave OPEC and OPEC+, easing some supply concerns, though prices held near the upper end of a nearly 3% rally as stalled efforts to end the Iran war kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and constrained Middle East supplies. Brent crude futures for June climbed $2.93, or 2.7%, to $111.16 a barrel at 1532 GMT. The contract was on track for a seventh consecutive day of …
UAE to exit OPEC, OPEC+ amid West Asia conflict: How can world tackle the oil shock?
The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from the first of May amidst ongoing tensions in West Asia. This development has sparked concerns about a severe global energy crisis, with oil prices crossing one hundred and ten dollars a barrel and gasoline prices in the United States reaching a four-year high. The reduced movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has signific…
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