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Lawler Trails Conley in Battleground New York House Contest: Poll

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News survey shows Conley ahead among likely voters, with 7% undecided and Lawler’s favorability underwater.

  • On Thursday, a WPIX-11/Emerson College poll revealed Democrat Cait Conley leading Republican Congressman Mike Lawler 48% to 46% in New York's 17th Congressional District.
  • Lawler's standing has eroded since 2024, with his favorability dropping from 52% to 45% while his unfavorable rating climbed to 46%.
  • Voters describing themselves as "very excited" favor Conley by seven points, while the economy ranks as the top issue at 31%, followed by "threats to democracy" at 23%.
  • Democratic crossover support for Lawler fell to 12% from 20% in 2024, while Republican support for the Democrat rose to 10% from 4%.
  • The candidates face off in a key debate on October 15, a pivotal moment in a race that could determine which party controls the House next year.
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Bias Distribution

  • 40% of the sources lean Left, 40% of the sources are Center
40% Center

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emersoncollegepolling.com broke the news on Thursday, October 1, 2026.
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