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Moody’s Raises India FY27 Growth Forecast to 7% From 6% on Resilient Economy, Stronger Investment
Moody’s said private consumption, infrastructure spending and a revival in investment are supporting the stronger outlook.
On Friday, Moody's Ratings raised India's real GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026-27 to 7% from 6%, citing the economy's resilience to the Middle East conflict and strong domestic demand.
Strong private consumption, robust gross fixed capital formation, and public infrastructure spending drove the upgrade. India withstood external shocks better than previously anticipated, prompting the revision.
Moody's 7% forecast is 0.6 percentage point above the International Monetary Fund's projection and 0.4 percentage point higher than S&P Global Ratings and Reserve Bank of India estimates.
Retaining India's Baa3 long-term issuer ratings with a stable outlook, Moody's expects fiscal consolidation to continue gradually, supported by improving tax administration and nominal GDP growth.
Elevated global energy prices and El Niño-related food pressures could push inflation above the 4.8% projection for FY27, while rising defense and infrastructure spending may constrain fiscal consolidation.