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Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, Quaest poll shows

The poll shows Lula ahead by 1 point in a runoff, while third-place candidate Augusto Cury gains support from TV and social media exposure.

  • Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowed to a technical tie, according to a Wednesday Quaest poll commissioned by Globo ahead of October's election.
  • An August 14 survey previously showed Lula leading Bolsonaro by 43% to 40%, reflecting shifting voter sentiment as the October election approaches.
  • In the latest first-round scenario, Lula leads with 37% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 30%, while author and psychiatrist Augusto Cury holds 10% in third place.
  • If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff election in October.
  • A simulated second-round runoff shows a tight race, with Lula polling at 42% compared to 41% for the son of President Jair Bolsonaro.
Insights by Ground AI

34 Articles

Right

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, if they advance to the second round, the former would win with 42%

·Marousi, Greece
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Left

The indexes are similar to those recorded in the last survey of the institute

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Lean Right

Quaest research released on Wednesday (2) shows how the dispute is going for the Presidency of the Republic. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and by Globo. Lula (PT) leads with 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 29% and Augusto Cury (Avante) is now the third place, with 10%. Renan Santos (Mission) has 3% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Romeu Zema (Novo), 1% each. See the numbers of the stimulated research, in which Quaest shows vote…

·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Brasilia, Sep 2 (Latin Press) Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the voting intentions for next October's elections and appears numerically in front of his opponents in the second round scenarios, according to a poll released today.

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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, September 2, 2026.
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