JP Morgan Says It Has No Clear Oil Market Endgame as Iran Conflict Drags On
- JPMorgan dropped its forecast for the Iran war's end on Thursday, with strategist Natasha Kaneva stating the bank no longer has a "baseline view" for the market.
- The bank initially assumed economic redlines—oil above $100, gas near $5, and 10-year Treasury yields above 5%—would force President Donald Trump to secure a deal by June, but those thresholds were crossed without resolution.
- Brent crude is trading near $105 per barrel, while global inventories have fallen by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, though prices have not risen as sharply as JPMorgan expected.
- Trump told Axios on Thursday that he faces a "big decision" on whether to restart major combat operations against Iran or end the war, adding he is approaching a crossroads.
- If Middle East supply disruptions persist, oil prices could increase later this year, Kaneva cautioned, noting that six months into the conflict, the exit strategy remains unclear.
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JP Morgan said the conflict, which began with the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, made it difficult to predict oil markets. While the bank could not lay out a clear baseline scenario for the oil market for the first time since the start of the war, supply losses and a decline in inventories increased risks in the market.
The US major bank JPMorgan can no longer reliably predict the price of oil. Sinking consumption and stocks cushion supply failures.
Even JPMorgan can’t predict oil’s next move as Iran war crosses more red lines
JPMorgan says it no longer has a clear baseline for oil prices as Middle East tensions deepen supply risks. Brent remains above $100 a barrel, while lower demand and inventory buffers have helped the market absorb disruptions.
The war with Iran keeps the oil market in check: JPMorgan warns about possible new losses of supply and prices higher than its forecasts.
Six months after the start of the conflict, there is no solution in sight. "We simply do not know how to model the outcome," says a study by the bank.
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