If one trader can force the outcome of a prediction market, it shouldn’t be tradable

If one trader can force the outcome of a prediction market, it shouldn’t be tradable

By hosting manipulable contracts, prediction markets swap their long-term credibility for short-term engagement.

Prediction Markets and Manipulation Risk: Why Platform Design Matters

Prediction markets like Polymarket have gained serious traction during election cycles and major world events, with their prices increasingly treated as real-time indicators of truth. The appeal is straightforward when people stake real money on outcomes, the collective result theoretically reflects reality more accurately than polls or pundits. But this promise breaks down the moment a contract financially rewards someone for engineering the ve…