How a niche copper trade became a real-time gauge of Trump’s next tariff move
5 Articles
5 Articles
Markets anticipate that the Trump administration will further expand the scope of copper tariffs, prompting traders to ship copper to the United States ahead of schedule, pushing up US inventories and compressing supply in other markets. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose for the seventh consecutive week on the 17th, with spot prices trading at a premium of $478 over three-month futures, a new high since 2021.
Copper arbitrage has become a real-time indicator as the US awaits its Section 232 tariff decision. The Comex-LME spread reflects the probability of new tariffs; a 15% tariff probability is calculated at 14.6%, and a 30% probability at 37%. A niche copper arbitrage has become a real-time indicator as the US decides on new tariffs on copper imports. The spread between Comex copper futures and the London Metal Exchange (LME), a mechanism that has …
CNBC: This copper bet has became a real-time gauge of Trump’s next trade war salvo
CNBC writes: One specialist arbitrage trade on a metal commodity is evolving into a real-time gauge of U.S. tariff risk. Copper — seen as a broader economic barometer, with the industrial metal a key component in construction, electronics and transportation — has been on a tear for more than a year, with futures reaching a record high of almost $6.90 per pound last week. The spread between U.S. COMEX futures and London Metal ... The post CNBC: T…
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