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Government Could Fall Short on Pledge to Cut NHS Waiting Lists, Analysis Finds

Analysis by the Health Foundation shows waiting lists could fall to 4.7 million by 2029 but average waits will exceed 20 weeks, missing the 18-week target despite some improvements.

  • This year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledged 92% of routine operations within 18 weeks by the end of Parliament, but the Health Foundation analysis finds the Government could fall short.
  • When the Labour Government came to power, the NHS faced 7.6 million patients on waiting lists with 58.8% seen within 18 weeks, and waits grew during the pandemic as NHS trusts scaled back routine care.
  • Recent NHS performance numbers indicate 61.3% of patients were seen within 18 weeks, the total waiting list fell to 7.4 million, referrals rose 1.5%, and removals increased 2.3%.
  • NHS trusts report that just over a third are making progress under the waiting-time plan, while strikes and the prospect of further industrial action delay appointments.
  • Based on trends over the past year, the Health Foundation projects a 4.7 million waiting‑list projection, but reaching the 18‑week standard requires smarter NHS workforce and infrastructure use.
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Wednesday, September 24, 2025.
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