Experts on both sides of the pond say Alberta would do well to learn from Brexit
Experts say Alberta should study Brexit’s years of turmoil and losses before a separation vote, with one paper estimating a 6% to 8% GDP hit by 2025.
- As Albertans prepare to vote this fall on potential separation from Canada, the United Kingdom's messy departure from the European Union serves as a cautionary tale of economic turmoil and political upheaval.
- Premier Danielle Smith estimates independence could cost around $400 billion in transitional expenses, with annual costs reaching $50 billion, though separatist leaders argue startup costs would be no more than $5.7 billion.
- Lennie Kaplan, a former provincial finance manager, estimates independence would cause a $39.1-billion hit to Alberta's GDP, or a 7.2 per cent drop, while trade costs would rise 12 per cent due to renegotiated agreements.
- Warning that "the numbers are enormous," Richard Barfield noted the United Kingdom split led to reduced investment and trade, reflecting what experts call "elevated uncertainty" and "increased misallocation of resources."
- Experts suggest a thorough accounting of risks is essential before any vote, as William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, warned referendums tend to become "incredibly polarized.
13 Articles
13 Articles
Experts warn that the uncertainty associated with a referendum would result in major economic and administrative costs to the province.
Ten years ago, the United Kingdom voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU), triggering years of political turbulence and economic difficulties that still persist today.
The Toronto Star
Experts on both sides of the pond say Alberta would do well to learn from Brexit
CALGARY - Ten years ago this week, the United Kingdom voted to quit the European Union, setting off years of political turmoil and economic pain that persist to this day.
Experts on both sides of the Atlantic say Alberta would do well to learn from Brexit
Ten years ago this week, the United Kingdom voted to quit the European Union, setting off years of political turmoil and economic pain that persist to this day. Richard Barfield was working at consulting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers around the time of the Brexit referendum, advising financial services clients on risk and regulatory matters. He considered himself “reasonably well-informed,” but even he had a tough time parsing out accurate infor…
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- 70% of the sources lean Left
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