El Niños Are Now Stronger than Any in the Past 1,000 Years, Study Finds
Researchers found El Niño events in the past 40 years were 36% stronger than preindustrial levels, based on 1,000 years of coral records.
- On Thursday, August 27, 2026, researchers published a study in Science revealing El Niño events have intensified by 36% over the past 40 years, a shift linked to human-caused global warming.
- Lead author Julia Cole of the University of Michigan used 1,000-year-old Galápagos coral records as a 'time machine' to reconstruct Pacific temperature history and identify intensification patterns.
- The data shows a 16% jump in El Niño intensity over the past 40 years, marking an accelerating trend far beyond the relative stability observed during the 1,000-year pre-industrial period.
- Stronger El Niño events amplify global weather extremes including floods and droughts. Climate scientist Kim Cobb of Brown University said the findings suggest 'something about this important source of climate extremes has already changed.'
- While some experts like Michael Mann question whether coral records fully isolate climate signals, NOAA forecasts the current 2026 El Niño could reach historic levels, providing a real-world test of the study's findings.
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36 Articles
By Andrew Freedman, CNN The climate pattern that gives rise to El Niño is becoming more erratic as the planet warms up, and the phenomenon itself is intensifying, according to a comprehensive study published on Thursday.The research provides new data on the Super El Niño that is gaining strength in the tropical Pacific and that, according to forecasts, could become the most intense episode of this type since at least 1950, and possibly much earl…
A study published this Thursday shows that the natural El Niño phenomenon could be exacerbated by global warming. Scientists reached this conclusion after relying on the geochemistry of thousand-year-old coral skeletons. The current El Niño episode could be the most powerful ever observed. - Thanks to the study of 1000-year-old corals, it is known that El Niño is intensifying with global warming (Sciences).
The Conversation
Galápagos corals show El Niño events are more extreme now than in past 1,000 years – here’s how my team made the discovery
Scientists went to the heart of the El Niño pattern to learn from living and fossil corals. The results show El Niño’s intensifying coincides with global warming.
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