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Met Office delivers El Nino forecast for UK autumn

Forecasters said the chance of a warm, wet season is up to twice normal as near-record El Niño conditions raise flooding risk.

  • The Met Office warned that the country faces a wetter and stormier autumn, with an increased risk of flooding, as a near-record El Niño makes such conditions one-and-a-half to two times more likely.
  • Despite recent rainfall, the Environment Agency reported that nearly three-quarters of England remains in drought, marking the country's third drought in five years with reservoir levels very low.
  • Water minister Emma Hardy, who chaired a National Drought Group meeting on Thursday, announced government funding for nine new major reservoirs to strengthen long-term water infrastructure resilience.
  • Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk cautioned that while this El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, "that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK." El Niño is one of several climate drivers influencing weather patterns.
  • Historically, El Niño events in the tropical Pacific Ocean are associated with warmer, wetter, and stormier late autumns across Europe, though forecasters continue to monitor developments as this phenomenon reaches near-record levels.
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BBC News broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Friday, September 11, 2026.
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