Explainer: The Strait Iran Cannot Sell
Tanker traffic has recovered to nearly 80% of prewar levels, weakening Tehran’s ability to threaten a key oil route, Kpler said.
- Oil and petroleum traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded to nearly 80 percent of pre-conflict levels last week, undermining Iran's leverage in ongoing negotiations with the United States.
- Prior to the conflict, 83 percent of regional crude crossed the Strait of Hormuz; producers now circumvent the waterway using pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers, a system Alexander Stahel, founder of Burggraben Holding, calls the "Hormuz Shuttle."
- Middle East oil shipments excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, while Tehran's economy struggles with 69.9 percent inflation and a currency trading beyond 2.2 million rials to the U.S. dollar.
- At the United Nations General Assembly last week, U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held indirect talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi; President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's proposed seven-day reopening roadmap.
- A "war premium" remains embedded in global oil prices due to continued vessel threats and insurance costs, while analysts suggest Tehran may struggle to secure a favorable deal as time works against its leadership.
16 Articles
16 Articles
Iran Is Losing Some of Its Leverage Over the Strait of Hormuz
The flow of crude from the Persian Gulf has recovered to near-prewar levels, but the latest data shows that much of the oil is reaching markets through routes and shipping arrangements that did not exist before the war, raising the question of whether Iran is losing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. At least 16.5 million barrels per day of crude left the region between September 1 and 28, matching the prewar average when Iran is excluded, ac…
The nearly seven-month-long conflict between Iran and the United States appears to be reaching a new turning point. Iran's economy is facing increasing pressure from inflation, a weak currency, and US sanctions. Meanwhile, oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, raising questions about the strength of Iran's pressure.
More oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormus, although Iran is threatening commercial ships with drones and missiles. The US is militaryly securing the tankers and thus trying to keep the important route open.
Iran's Hormuz Leverage Is Fading, But It Isn't Gone
Oil flows from the Gulf have recovered to prewar levels, but the Strait of Hormuz is far from normal. Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping has weakened, yet tankers still face major risks and rely on US military protection and costly workarounds to move crude.
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 57% of the sources lean Right
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
