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ECB to hike rates as Iran war fuels fresh inflation fears
Economists expect the ECB to lift its policy rate to 2.5% and signal more tightening as oil and gas prices jump.
The European Central Bank raised its policy rate to 2.5% from 2.25% on Thursday, September 10, 2026, marking its second hike this year to combat an energy-driven inflation surge triggered by the Iran war.
Attacks between the U.S. and Iran since late August have disrupted energy transit, sending oil and gas prices soaring again and reviving fears of widespread price hikes across the fuel-importing euro zone.
Euro zone inflation hit 3.3% in August with energy costs surging 14.3%, while markets priced in a 100% chance of the rate increase according to LSEG data.
Jonathan Pryor, head of private markets at Marex FX, warned the ECB could "get caught out" if it miscalculates a "one and done" strategy while policymakers signaled readiness to tighten further.
ECB President Christine Lagarde faces questions regarding her tenure, scheduled until October 31, 2027, amid investor uncertainty over whether this hike signals a "one and done" move or a protracted cycle.
The decision will increase the pressure on the budgets of the families, businesses and states of the euro area. Moreover, the Minister of the Environment again sets aside the price of fuels.
More than six months after the start of the Gulf War and with oil once again above $100 a barrel, the European Central Bank…
The “oil war” leads the ECB to raise interest rates - ΙΝΑΦΤΕΜΟΠΟΡΙΚΙ