Democrats edge out, neck and neck with Republicans in 5 key Senate races: Polls
New polling shows Democrats leading or tied in five Trump-won states, with a 92% chance of a Senate majority shift, according to prediction markets.
- On Saturday, October 3, 2026, a New York Times/Siena survey showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent in the Texas Senate race, potentially marking the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988.
- Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, requiring Democrats to protect existing seats and gain four Republican-held positions for outright control; a 50-50 split would leave Republicans effective control through Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote.
- Across other closely watched contests, Democrats hold leads in Alaska and Ohio, while Republican Ashley Hinson maintains a narrow 48-47 lead in Iowa and the Kansas race remains tied between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall.
- Economic concerns featured highest on voters' priorities, with 21 percent citing it as the most important issue, while between 48 percent and 51 percent of voters expressed strong disapproval of President Donald Trump's job performance.
- Democrats navigate an emerging map presenting multiple paths through states with sharply different electorates, ranging from heavily urban Texas to sparsely populated Alaska, with results potentially replicated on Election Day.
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Commentary: What's going to happen in the midterm election? Find out here. (Maybe)
Two of the country's top political prognosticators see Democrats likely seizing the House and possibly the Senate. The guardrails Republicans were counting on to stem their losses don't seem to be holding.
The Republican Party currently holds the majority with 53 of the 100 seats in the upper house
Polls and trends paint a difficult picture for the Republican Party before the Democrats, in a mid-term election that could be the most expensive in history. Trump, with 31% approval, reiterated his pledge of $5,000 this Saturday.
A new poll by NYT/Siena showed the advantage of democrats in the race for Senate seats in Texas, Alaska and Ohio.
Democratic Senate Candidates Gain in Trump States: Polls
Voters in a string of states that reliably back Republicans for Senate are sounding increasingly open to supporting Democrats this fall. New polling from the New York Times and Siena College shows Democrats leading or tied in five states that President Trump has previously carried: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, and...
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- 38% of the sources lean Right
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