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DDHQ Shifts Florida Governor Race to Toss-Up

DDHQ said Byron Donalds’ win probability fell to 60% as David Jolly gained ground and the contest moved into statistical tie territory.

  • On Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ reclassified the Florida gubernatorial race as a 'Toss Up,' marking a significant shift for Republican Byron Donalds against Democratic opponent David Jolly.
  • Donalds' win probability has dropped to 60%, down from 68% at the start of September, despite registered Republicans still outnumbering Democrats by over 1.5 million in the state.
  • While Donalds recently removed several references to President Donald Trump from his website, Jolly-Graham campaign senior advisor Mark Riddle stated the rating shift 'won't change our approach' to the race.
  • Other election analysts, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, have also shifted their Florida ratings, citing a 'persistently poor national environment for Republicans' impacting the contest.
  • Although Tampa-based conservative political strategist Spence Rogers argued 'Florida isn't tied,' the race is now competitive enough that either candidate has a plausible path to winning.
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Palm Beach Post broke the news in West Palm Beach, United States on Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
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