Democrats' Optimism in Battleground States May Be a Mirage, Data Shows

93% of Polls Overestimated Battleground Dems 1 Month Out from Election Day

A new analysis by Patrick Ruffini shows Senate polling from 2018–2024 overstated Democrats across Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan by an average of 6.2 points 33 days before Election Day, and counted out ultimate GOP winners like Joni Ernst and Bernie Moreno.  “Democrats should think twice before relying too heavily on the same rosy polling that […]

Democrats' optimism in battleground states may be a mirage, data shows

Democrats are optimistic about their chances of flipping the Senate, but polls have overestimated them in the past.

CNN Acknowledges GOP's Senate Control Likely Amid Polling Trends

As Democrats consider a Senate takeover, CNN's Harry Enten cautions against premature celebrations. Republicans have consistently outperformed their September polling in key states like Ohio and Iowa.

CNN Admits GOP Will Hold Senate If Polling Trends Continue

Democrats eyeing a Senate takeover may want to hold the champagne. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Wednesday that Republicans have repeatedly beaten their September polling in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan by margins large enough to erase the Democratic leads he highlighted in this year’s races. Appearing on “CNN News Central,” Enten pointed to […]

CNN’s Data Guru Just Dropped Brutal Numbers for the Democrats’ Midterm Dreams

CNN data analyst reveals GOP may outperform polls, challenging Democrats' 2026 midterm hopes.

Data Analyst Explains Why 'Good Polls' for Dems in Some Senate Races May Be Way Off

Data analyst reveals why polls may underestimate GOP strength in key 2026 Senate races.