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Danish Intelligence Warns of Rising Russian Hybrid Threats While Calling Direct NATO Invasion 'Highly Unlikely'
The intelligence service said sabotage and destructive cyber operations could become more frequent as Russia seeks to weaken support for Ukraine.
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service released an updated threat assessment warning that Russia is likely to intensify hybrid warfare against NATO and Western countries in the coming months.
The agency warned that these attacks, including destructive cyberattacks and sabotage, will carry "greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past," aiming to fracture allied unity and redirect resources away from Ukraine.
Regarding potential military action, the report outlines a "low but growing risk" of limited strikes against NATO borders, though intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel stressed an outright invasion remains "highly unlikely."
Following incidents in Germany and at sea, including a Russian frigate firing flares near a Danish military helicopter, the Danish Resilience Agency increased its threat level for potential cyberattacks.
Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement in hybrid warfare, while officials emphasize that Russia's strategy aims to divide NATO rather than initiate full-scale confrontation, a move requiring months of concealable preparations.
Danish services foresee destructive cyberattacks and sabotages against the West, while growing, although still low, the danger of a limited incursion against border allies
Russia could carry out a limited military operation against one of the NATO countries in the coming months, said the Danish Military Intelligence and Security Service (DDIS).
Danish military intelligence warns of possible limited operation or hybrid attacks - Scenarios and assessments for possible operations against NATO - "The goal is to break up the Alliance"
Danish intelligence services warn of an escalation of Russian threats to NATO, with a higher risk of limited military actions and sabotage and cyberattacks.